The penultimate week of the regular season blew me away with a whopping 60% on spread selects. Admittedly, this week’s Sir Rebral Seven wasn’t as hot as my full slate. Now is perhaps as apt a time as any to remind all my Super Subjects about volume betting strategy. The key to winning big is not about throwing all your eggs into one basket. It’s about hedging your bets across a wide, strong slate. (All the more reason to consider the Whole Enchilada –– at least 10 selects and 10 O/U every week.)

Allow me to breakdown where I went wrong this week.  

The Sir Rebral Seven

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: CAR +7 @ JAX 

Final Score: Jaguars 26 Panthers 0 

All of the momentum that was pointing to a Panthers win or cover was stopped abruptly this game, as the Jaguars executed for the first time in over a month. I guess it’s easier to perform when you are playing the team with the worst record in the league!

✅❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: CLE -7.5 v NYJ, UNDER 35 

Final Score: Browns 37 Jets 20

The Jets defense seemed to decide to pack it in for the season, starting with this game. The Browns got touchdown after touchdown, which was good for them to cover 7.5, but the under was dead in the first quarter.

❌✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: CIN +7 @ KC, under 44

Final Score: Chiefs 25 Bengals 17

 This was a devastating beat. The Bengals scored on their first 3 drives en route to a 17-7 second quarter lead, and then gave up an unbelievable 6 FGs and no TDs the rest of the way, just shy of covering the spread. The under held at least, but the Bengals defense couldn’t force any punts in the second half and their offense completely died.

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: SEA -3.5 v PIT

Final Score: Steelers 30 Seahawks 23

Another stupid game, as the Steelers offense looked like they were the best in the league all of the sudden, running and throwing the ball all over the field. I’ve got nothing.

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: TB -3 v NO

Final Score: Saints 23 Buccaneers 13

The Buccaneers were due for a disappointing game. Shocker of the week: the Saints defense decided to show up for the first time all season.

The Spread Selects

✅CLE -7.5 v NYJ

❌DAL -4.5 v DET

✅SF -13.5 @ WSH

✅NYG +6 v LAR

✅ARI +12 @ PHI

✅NE +14 @ BUF

❌TB -3 v NO

✅LV +3.5 @ IND

❌CAR +4 @ JAX

✅CHI -3 v ATL

✅HOU -4.5 v TEN

❌CIN +7 @ KC

❌SEA -4.5 v PIT

✅DEN -3 v LAC

❌MIN -1.5 v GB

The Over/Unders

❌CLE v NYJ UNDER 35

❌DAL v DET OVER 53.5

✅SF @ WSH UNDER 49

❌ARI @ PHI UNDER 48.5

✅NE @ BUF OVER 40.5

❌BAL v MIA UNDER 47

✅TB v NO UNDER 42.5

❌LV @ IND UNDER 41.5

✅CAR @ JAX UNDER 38

✅CHI v ATL OVER 39

✅HOU v TEN UNDER 43.5

❌CIN @ KC UNDER 44

❌SEA v PIT UNDER 41.5

❌DEN v LAC OVER 37.5

✅MIN v GB OVER 42.5

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