NFL football is back! With Week 1 kicking off in Kansas City tonight, it’s time to place our first slate of volume bets to commence our systematic devastation of the sports books. Before getting to the picks — or Selects, as I’ll call them — I want to underline the importance that you exercise a volume betting strategy.

Oddsmakers know what they’re doing. With tight betting lines, you have to bet in volume to overcome the variance and wackiness that is bound to happen in several games each week. That is why I don’t offer “locks” like many others out there. I am more confident in some bets than others, but any Select I give you will be as well researched and computed as any other. Taken as a whole, my Selects WILL win you profits over time.

I’m so confident in my results that I am giving a money-back guarantee. Other handicappers scam you with free-pick guarantees. If you’re not satisfied with what you’re getting, you can cancel and get a full refund at any time for any reason (prorated for the amount of the season that remains).

Now to the Selects. Each week subscribers will get two Selects with quick hits on the logic and inputs that went into them. As I mentioned, though, betting on just a few lines won’t ensure long-term profitability, which is why you should join the Sir Rebral Cabal and receive the gamut of my Selects with in-depth analyses for each, plus a few Stay Aways. For this week and this week only, everyone gets a free sample of some in-depth analyses and all my Selects.

The Sir Rebral Seven

SIR REBRAL SELECT: Raiders +4 @ Broncos

CEREBRAL INDEX RATING: 93 (out of maximum 100)

While the Broncos have the potential to be improved with Sean Payton coming over to be the coach, they still have to prove themselves before they are favored by 4 points against a team that beat them twice last year.

The Broncos offensive line is coming off a rough year, so we will have to watch very carefully week 1 to see if they have improved as a unit. The general consensus is that if healthy, they will be decent. They will have a challenge with Max Crosby rushing the edge in week 1, and the Raiders also have some other players that could make an impact.

The Raiders started to show some pretty good O-line play last year, and they have the same unit back again. With the Raiders picking up Marcus Peters at corner, their outlook against the Broncos receivers and offense in general isn’t that bad. The Raiders defense is still going to have very soft stretches, but they shouldn’t be outright pathetic anymore.

Bills @ Jets UNDER 47

CEREBRAL INDEX RATING: 94 (out of maximum 100)

While these teams do have some stars with big play potential, the line play always is the overarching narrative when it comes to football games. Both D-lines will feast on the opponents' O-lines, causing a lot of resistance in the red zone. I expect more than a fair share of field goals, sacks, punts, and turnovers in this matchup.

We saw these teams were a competitive matchup last season, as they played twice. Not much changed for the offensive line outlooks, other than maybe a slightly healthier Jets. Even with Von Miller out the first month, the Bills have plenty of depth up front, and will make the Jets work for their points.

While the O/U of 47 is certainly a reflection of two great QBs in Allen vs. Rodgers, the bottom line is always the evaluation of the entirety of the rosters. Not only will the line play be tough for both sides, but opposing defensive backs are damn good on both sides as well. It won't be a shootout by any means, so the under is the play all day.

SIR REBRAL SELECT: Jaguars -4.5 @ Colts

CEREBRAL INDEX RATING: 95 (out of maximum 100)

The Colts enter the season with a major project of a rookie QB, and the worst outlook as far as position players go, so we can expect a well-oiled Jags offense to handily outscore them in week 1.

Anthony Richardson has the worst completion percentage, INT rate, and off-target rate in his draft class. His offensive weapons at running back and wide receiver are among the worst in the league with Jonathan Taylor’s absence and Zack Moss’s questionable status. The O-line is coming off a terrible year, and while they’re healthy on paper, I’m going to have to see a lot more before I believe that they’re going to be an impressive unit. Defensively, losing Isaiah Rodgers for the year was a huge blow for the Colts, who now are running with Kenny Moore—who had a horrible last season—and a rookie and a sophomore who didn’t play last year.

In contrast, Trevor Lawrence is an MVP candidate with three really good receivers. The Jaguars defense was young and sloppy last year, despite their massive potential. This year could end up being a big step up for the young defense. Week 1 won’t be a dominating type of performance for the Jaguars defense, so I think they will give up at least one touchdown drive to the Colts and let them get a little bit comfortable in the first half. But the Jacksonville offensive attack will overwhelm them in the second half.

SIR REBRAL SELECT: Seahawks -5.5 vs. Rams

CEREBRAL INDEX RATING: 96 (out of maximum 100)

The Rams gutted their entire defense, which always means that punishment will ensue. The Seahawks offense has a pretty good outlook, after a breakout year from Geno Smith, who will return with a full trio of receiving weapons. I expect Pete Carroll and his crew to be ready to sling it in week 1 and score all over the Rams, who are rebuilding and most likely tanking for Caleb Williams.

The Los Angeles offense is no better. The Rams have zero receiver depth with Cooper Kupp out due to a hamstring injury. They have an offensive line and quarterback that are old and undependable.

While everyone knows that the Rams have one of the best D-linemen of all time in Aaron Donald, it takes a lot more than one guy to succeed as a unit. The Rams defense is in for a long year, and that long year starts right now on the road against a competent division rival. I think the Seahawks are the most likely team to score 40+ points in week 1, so a spread under 7 points is a no-brainer for one of my favorite selections of the week.

SIR REBRAL SELECT: Texans @ Ravens UNDER 44

CEREBRAL INDEX RATING: 97 (out of maximum 100)

Points will be hard to come by in this game for many reasons. The Ravens proved their worth on defense last year, finishing 2nd against the run. The Texans offense looks like the worst in the league heading into this season, with a rookie QB, a rookie head coach, and not much glamor in the preseason. To make matters worse, the Texans offensive line is banged up badly already, as they are on their 3rd-string center, a rookie late-round draft pick. The Ravens should get good penetration and eliminate their run game. I could see the Texans abandoning the run game early, and letting CJ Stroud just chuck it — and undoubtedly get picked off.

The Ravens offense might be good, but either way, they should face some resistance from Demeco Ryans and what could be a very solid defensive group. Their defensive line features the 2nd overall pick Will Anderson Jr., alongside superstar free agent acquisition Sheldon Rankins and veteran Jerry Hughes.

SIR REBRAL SPECIAL: Chiefs 31, Lions 28

They always try to put the presumed shootout of the week on the opening Thursday of the season! I’m picking the Lions to cover and the over.

You have two proven offensive lines and two unproven defensive lines. The Chiefs lost LB Frank Clark in free agency, DT Chris Jones is holding out, and DE Charles Omenihu is suspended for the first six games of the season. With two rookies added into Kansas City’s defensive line, the unit is the worst in the league for week 1. The Lions will have all day to throw, and Mahomes can make magic happen even when (well, especially when) scrambling.

For each game I outline a complete game script predicting every drive, as well as key stat lines. Here are some of those stat lines:

Lions

• Jared Goff: 20/35 221 YDS 1 TD 1 INT

• Team Rushing: 24 ATT 108 YDS 2 TD

• 329 yards gained, minus sacks (sacked 2 times / 15 yds)

• 314 total yards

• 3 punts

• 2 team sacks

Chiefs

• Patrick Mahomes: 25/32 289 YDS 2 TD 1 INT

• Team Rushing: 22 ATT 87 YDS 2 TD

• 376 yards gained, minus sacks (sacked 2 times for 15 yds)

• 361 total yards

• 2 punts

• 2 team sacks

The Spread Selects

LV +4 @ DEN

JAX -4.5 @ IND

DET +5 @ KC

BAL -10 vs HOU

Week 1 spells disaster for a Texans team who has a very banged up offensive line, a rookie head coach, a rookie quarterback, all on the road against a Ravens defense that is tough as nails.

PHI -4.5 @ NE

The Patriots proved last year that they can't defend running quarterbacks, and the Eagles are primed to run the ball all over them for 4 quarters.

ATL -3.5 vs CAR

Atlanta features one of the most dynamic run games in the league, and Carolina and their rookie quarterback will struggled to outscore them this time around.

ARI +7 @ WSH

While it feels uncomfortable taking Arizona, the Commanders are simply not deserving of 7 points. as they are fielding an offensive line that could be amongst the worst in the league.

CLE +2.5 vs CIN

The Browns are going to have a bounce-back year on defense, and at home especially they matchup up well against a Bengals team with a shaky offensive line.

CHI -1.5 vs GB

Look for Justin Fields and his new weapons to have a good start to the season at home, as the Packers have produced no evidence that they have changed from the team last year that could not stop the run.

LAC -3 vs MIA

The Chargers have one of the most stacked teams on paper this year, and Justin Herbert is primed to take advantage of the Dolphins lack of cornerback depth without Jalen Ramsey.

NYG +3.5 vs DAL

Last year, the Giants sent a message to the league that they are going to win games by taking care of the ball and not committing penalties. They will be more prepared week 1 than the Kellen Moore-less Cowboys will be, and will snap Dak's 10-0 record against the Giants at last.

NYJ +2.5 vs BUF

The Jets happen to be the worst matchup in the league for the Bills, who feature one of the worst offensive lines going against the Jets top-tier defensive line.

The Over/Under Selects

SF @ PIT UNDER 40.5

PROJECTION: SF 16 PIT 13 (11.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

BUF @ NYJ UNDER 47

PROJECTION: NYJ 19 BUF 17 (11 PT DIFFERENCE)

HOU @ BAL UNDER 44

PROJECTION: BAL 26 HOU 10 (8 PT DIFFERENCE)

CAR @ ATL OVER 40

PROJECTION: ATL 27 CAR 21 (8 PT DIFFERENCE)

JAX @ IND UNDER 43.5

PROJECTION: JAX 24 IND 13 (6.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

GB @ CHI UNDER 43.5

PROJECTION: CHI 21 GB 17 (5.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

TB @ MIN UNDER 45.5

PROJECTION: MIN 24 TB 16 (5.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

DET @ KC OVER 52.5

PROJECTION: KC 31 DET 28 (5 PT DIFFERENCE)

PHI @ NE OVER 44.5

PROJECTION: PHI 29 NE 21 (5 PT DIFFERENCE)

TEN @ NO UNDER 41.5

PROJECTION: NO 20 TEN 17 (4.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

LV @ DEN UNDER 44.5

PROJECTION: DEN 20 LV 20 (4.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

DAL @ NYG OVER 46.5

PROJECTION: NYG 27 DAL 24 (4.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

MIA @ LAC OVER 51

PROJECTION: LAC 31 MIA 24 (4 PT DIFFERENCE)

CIN @ CLE UNDER 47.5

PROJECTION: CLE 24 CIN 20 (3.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

LAR @ SEA OVER 46.5

PROJECTION: SEA 30 LAR 20 (3.5 PT DIFFERENCE)

ARI @ WSH UNDER 39

PROJECTION: WSH 20 ARI 16 (3 PT DIFFERENCE)

The Stay Aways

Don’t touch these spreads!

NO -3.5 vs TEN (Score projection NO 20 TEN 17)

SF -2.5 @ PIT (Score projection SF 16 PIT 13)

MIN -6 vs TB (Score projection MIN 24 TB 16)

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I can’t wait to crush this season together.

-- Joey