14 down. 4 more to go. I’m chomping at the bit to dive into the analysis, but first! I’m proud to announce that I went 8-3 in the last 11 Selects (between Sunday afternoon football, SNF, and MNF this week). And, on top of that, I called both upsets Monday night. The public bet for Green Bay and Miami, but I trusted my numbers, picked both underdogs, and came through with the win. 

(If you’re curious, we’ll walk you through the numbers of those Monday night upsets on my Instagram.)

sirrebralselects

View more on Instagram

The Sir Rebral Seven

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: NE PIT UNDER 30.5

Final Score: Patriots 21 Steelers 18

A devastating loss to start the week here, as myself and 97% of the betting dollars were on the under in this game. The Patriots exploded for 3 first half touchdowns out of nowhere, locking the over by halftime! Although these are two horrendous offenses, I think there is still something to be said for the Thursday night scoring trend. Defenses are more impacted by the short week than offense, so that factor might have overridden the fact that these teams had bad offensive outlooks heading into this week. 

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: BAL -7 v LAR

Final Score: Ravens 37 Rams 31

If you had told me that the Ravens would score 37 points, I’d refute that claim all day long. But one of the best defenses in the NFL decided to take an off day and the Rams got whatever they wanted for the whole game. The Ravens were coming off of a bye, but that somehow had the opposite effect of what I anticipated. Some teams get rusty, some teams get sharper. That’s just the unpredictability factor of the league, as even a dominant Ravens defense might be subject to slip up. 

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: HOU -4.5 at NYJ 

Final Score: Jets 30 Texans 6

CJ Stroud was already down Tank Dell, but his other top receiver Nico Collins got hurt early in this game, leaving him with no weapons in a rainy game on the road. Houston became a total disaster with their defense eventually let up in the second half. The score was 0-0 at halftime, but the Jets ended up scoring 30 points. 

❌✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: TB ATL OVER 39, ATL -1.5

Final Score: Buccaneers 29 Falcons 25

The over got there with ease, but the Falcons failed to win/cover despite outgaining the Buccaneers by 150 yards! It was the same story as their first matchup, and I feel like the Falcons were the sharp bet. But Desmond Ridder turned it over inside the Falcons’ own 10, setting up a cheap touchdown for Tampa, and he also took a safety as well. Credit to Tampa for not turning it over the whole game, which was the differentiating factor in the outcome. But overall, I would still pick the Falcons if we replayed this game.

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: DAL -3 v PHI 

Final Score: Cowboys 33 Eagles 13

The Eagles continue their struggles to the tune of a 6th straight game being outyarded. The Cowboys are a well-oiled machine, to say the least, and are still undefeated at home after this dominating performance. I’m surprised this spread held steady all week at 3 or 3.5, because the Cowboys are just heads and shoulders better right now, I could have seen this spread closer to 5 or 6! Mike McCarthy has more than surpassed expectations as the offensive play caller, and this team looks like they have a real chance at a Superbowl run. 

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: BUF KC OVER 47.5

Final Score: Bills 20 Chiefs 17

Both teams gained almost 400 yards on the game, and the closing line on the O/U was 49.5. Overs are tougher to hit than unders. Just a few turnovers or mishaps can stop the over from getting there!

🙅‍♂️SIR REBRAL STAY AWAY🙅‍♂️: KC -2 v BUF

Don’t touch this spread! 

The Chiefs had a long touchdown neutralized by an offensive offside penalty, and that swung the difference in the game. This was a very equal matchup between these two teams, who are both a bit worse than their usual selves right now. 

The Spread Selects

❌HOU -3.5 at NYJ

❌BAL -7 v LAR

❌JAX +2.5 at CLE

❌CAR +5.5 at NO

❌ATL -1.5 v TB

🔄LV +3 v MIN

❌SF -14 v SEA

✅DEN +3 at LAC

✅DAL -3 v PHI

✅TEN +13.5 at MIA

✅NYG +6.5 v GB

The Over/Unders

❌PIT v NE UNDER 30.5

❌HOU at NYJ UNDER 33.5

❌DET at CHI OVER 44

✅BAL v LAR OVER 42

❌JAX at CLE UNDER 37.5

✅CAR at NO UNDER 38.5

✅CIN v IND OVER 44.5

✅ATL v TB OVER 41

✅LV v MIN UNDER 40.5

✅SF v SEA UNDER 44.5

❌KC v BUF OVER 47.5

✅DEN at LAC UNDER 45

❌DAL v PHI OVER 53

✅NYG v GB OVER 37

To stay up to date with breaking news, line movements, and analysis, smash that follow button on Twitter, TikTok, Youtube, and Instagram.

————

Become a Sir Rebral Super Subject and get the Sir Rebral Seven delivered every week for the season. That’s 7 Selects and 1 Stay Away — plus early access to the recap of all my results. We have weekly, monthly, and season options available for all budgets!

For those that really want to make huge profits, the Whole Enchilada package comes with ALL my picks (at least 10 Spread Selects and 10 Over/Under Selects per week), all my Stay Aways, and all the research and stats that go into three Selects I’m most interested in that week, for just $750 for the rest of the season.

If you’re not ready yet to make the leap, be sure to subscribe to get next week’s Free Selects:

Huzzah,

-- Joey