Coming off a lackluster week, I’ve got one big principle on my mind: past results do not guarantee future performance. So what does that mean? In statistics and probability, we talk about independent trials. A game last week happens independently of any game this week. Even though the teams and their talents may stay the same or improve, last week’s outcomes don’t feed into this week’s ones. And that’s great news for us. Because a bad Week 7 can’t stop us from having an incredible Week 8. 

Heading into this week, the Falcons and Titans face off, after having both gone UNDER in each of their last 5 games! But despite that, I’m going against the grain and betting the OVER at the number of 35, the lowest total in any game this year so far.

Despite the Titans backup QB starting for Tannehill, I have confidence that the Titans will play half decent on offense at home off of a bye week. In both of Tennessee’s prior home games this year, they scored exactly 27 points. The Falcons defense has been very solid, but they still don’t get to the QB, as they are amongst the basement of teams with the fewest sacks.

The Falcons offense has been a well oiled machine, and is especially threatening now that Cordarrelle Patterson has returned. The Tennessee defense has not been very good, and matters will likely get worse now that they shipped off their best DB to the Eagles (Kevin Byard).

My score projection gets plenty over for 35 points: Falcons 24 Titans 17

Now let’s get into the Sir Rebral Seven, my best bets of the week. Sitting at 27-19 on the season, the Sir Rebral Seven have had winning records each week except last week, when I went 3-4. We won’t let that happen again. All my subscribers get two Free Selects, and premium subscribers can see the rest of the Seven.

Free Selects

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: CHI +8.5 @ LAC 

Cerebral Index Rating: 98 (out of maximum 100)

When you can run the football in this league, you have a good chance to win every week. The Bears not only can run the ball well, but their defense has turned it around drastically since the first few weeks of the year. This should be a good matchup against the Chargers, who are nothing special on either side of the ball. Don’t be surprised if the Bears win outright!

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: TB +9.5 @ BUF 

Cerebral Index Rating: 96

The Bills have shown very clearly that their defense is simply not the same now that they lost their leaders at Linebacker (Matt Milano) and cornerback (Tre’davious White). These short week games especially affect the defense, so on Thursday night football I expect the Bucs to get a lot of offense going against a struggling Buffalo squad.  

While these are my sharpest two Selects, these two alone won’t carry me across the finish line to bags of cash from NFL bets. Every week, I flex my volume betting strategy. To overcome variance, it’s important to not throw all your money in one basket, but instead spread it out across different bets. So let’s dive into the rest of the Sir Rebral Seven.

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While the numbers may be fun, so can be the things happening on the sidelines. Jackson Mahomes x Taylor Swift drama incoming orrr…? 

@sirrebralselects

Jackson stay away 🙃🤡 #taylorswift #swifties #traviskelce #nfl #nflmemes

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Let’s gooooo,

-- Joey