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Super Bowl LVIII is upon us. I know you’re chomping at the bit to see where I stand. So without further ado, let’s talk Chiefs vs 49ers.

(And further down, I’ll unpack some season trends.)

🏈Super Bowl LVIII🏈

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: SF -2 v KC (Stay Away from Over/Under)

Cerebral Index Rating: 98 (out of maximum 100)

Score Projection: 49ers 27 Chiefs 20

🤕Injuries: OL Joe Thuney (Chiefs) doubtful

⛈️Weather: Dome

The Chiefs are always an interesting case point in the league. Although they have managed to find themselves in the Superbowl yet again, I still see the Chiefs for the flawed team that they are. They got shut out in the second half last week, something that has happened several times this season to this offense. Combine that with the fact that they face a 49ers team notorious for their halftime adjustments, I think the Chiefs will face a roadblock in this game. The Lions got whatever they wanted in the first half against SF, but then after halftime, got absolutely nothing. That sharp difference is alarming. It’s all coaching.

The Chiefs deserve credit where it is due: their defense has stepped up. This might be the highest level any of their defenses have ever played historically. If they can somehow find a way to demolish the 49ers offensive line, they will definitely win. But that isn’t terribly likely with all of the talent on the other side. From McCaffrey to Deebo, it’s just a lot to handle. And unlike most years, the 49ers are ACTUALLY HEALTHY! The 49ers are overdue for this Superbowl win, and Brock Purdy is plenty enough better than Jimmy Garoppolo, who almost got them to the finish line himself. It’s the 49ers time. 

Super Bowl Props

Tis the season for hilarious (and absurd) prop bets. And the biggest one on my radar? Whether Travis will propose to Taylor on the field after the game (+1,020 for a yes and –3,500 for a no). I crunch numbers for football all day long. Admittedly, that doesn’t make me the chief expert on relationships and proposals. But after a wild year, we all need a little love. So I’m throwing a little money at +1020 because you can’t beat those odds! 

Wait, didn’t you just say you think the 49ers would win? Who in their right mind proposes after a LOSS? It’s called hedging your bets. Always a smart decision in the land of sports betting.

NFL 2023-24 Season

This was quite the roller coaster of an NFL season. The outputs each week were even more volatile than their usual selves, leading to many sharps being subpar this year. This season finished with 56% of the games going under, compared to 54% last year. Underdogs only covered 50% of the time, whereas historical trends have underdogs covering 52% or more of the time.  2% might not seem like a lot, but it's HUGE for sportsbooks. 

Sir Rebral Season

SIR REBRAL HIGHLIGHTS

• 1 Perfect Score: Washington Commanders beat the Arizona Cardinals 20-16 in Week 1

• 1 Correct Super Bowl Rematch Prediction (everybody slept on the Eagles coming through against KC in Week 11, but not me)

• 8-3 in Playoff Spreads

🚀🔥Where Sir Rebral soared🚀🔥

Patriots under 7.5 season wins (finished 4-13)

Giants under 8.5 season wins (finished 6-11)

Panthers under 7.5 season wins (finished 2-15)

📈🧠Where to improve for next season📈🧠

Mistakes are a part of life and a part of sports handicapping. Every week there was at least one big one that I looked back on and figured that I can avoid in future. Easier said than done, but I flat out just need to cut down on big mistakes. If I accurately handicap 15 of 16 games one week, the only thing I’m going to think about is how it should have been 16 of 16. 

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I hope this weekend is full of gameday traditions, Usher Raymond IV, good food, and even better football, 

-- Joey 

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