This week might not have been a touchdown, but the Sir Rebral Season Record still stands at an impressive 59% (27-19-3). The most important thing to remember with sports betting is variance. There will be good weeks and there inevitably will be bad weeks. This much we know. That’s why I employ a volume betting strategy. Don’t pick one or two games, bet across the entire Sir Rebral Seven. Following this strategy, you’re much more likely to see gains across the season.

Now, let’s analyze what I hit and what I missed.

Sir Rebral Seven

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: PIT @ LAR Under 43.5

The rejuvenated Steelers offense surprised everybody this week, moving the ball with ease against the Rams and carrying them to a solid win. The under still held, but it was a lot closer than expected. Tomlin off of a bye should not be discounted!

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: CLE @ IND Under 40.5

What a doozy! The dominant offensive line play on both sides overcame all factors en route to a 39-38 shootout. Given the vast underachievements of the Colts defense, I should have figured the Browns would score their share. And the Colts had proven that their offense was more than competent all year, and it was inaccurate to automatically discount them against the Browns D just because of the 49ers game last week. Bad pick by me, but a solid piece of observational data to take into account for future analysis.

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: BUF @ NE Under 40.5

Despite being on track for my prediction for the majority of the game, a bunch of touchdowns happened in the 4th quarter. I viewed the Bills and Patriots each as teams with broken offenses, so thought this was an easy bet. But what I didn’t recognize in previous weeks was that the Bills defense was also broken, and that automatically shooed in the Patriots for a big day, giving them 29 points.

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: ATL +2.5 @ TB

As the results indicate, this was a strong selection. The Falcons gained 400 yards of offense and were clearly the better team. Desmond Ridder with three red zone fumbles made this game a sweat, but the Falcons should have beaten the crap out of the Bucs.

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: DET +3 @ BAL

The Lions streak of three 14+ point margin of victories came to a screeching halt, losing 38-6. This game had me thinking about numbers and probabilities –– another example that past history does not guarantee future results. I knew the Ravens were good, but things really came together in a special way this week, proving that they are in fact Superbowl contenders.

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: PHI -2.5 v MIA

The Eagles dominated this game, holding the league leading rushing team to less than 50 yards on the ground. The Eagles only punted once, and committed 0 penalties.

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: MIA @ PHI Over 51.5

I predicted the Eagles would stop the Dolphins run game, but I couldn’t have predicted how right I was. The under, unfortunately, was the right play. The Dolphins offense only manufactured 10 points (defense scored 7). When a side only scores 10 points, the over is going to be hard to hit regardless of the number. The fact that it was a 51.5 line made it that much worse!

🙅‍♂️SIR REBRAL STAY AWAY🙅‍♂️: BUF -7.5 @ NE

Don’t touch this spread!

The alarm bells went off with Buffalo in previous weeks. It wasn’t clear if it was because of London travel or not, but now we know their problems go much deeper than that. This team is broken for the time being, so this was a good game to stay away from.

The Spread Selects

✅JAX +2.5 @ NO

✅NYG +3 v WSH

✅ATL +2.5 @ TB

❌DET +3 @ BAL

✅CHI +2.5 v LV

❌LAR -3 v PIT

❌ARI +9.5 @ SEA

✅DEN +1.5 v GB

❌LAC +5.5 @ KC

✅PHI -3 v MIA

❌SF -7 @ MIN

The Over/Under Selects

❌JAX @ NO: Under 41

❌BUF @ NE: Under 41

❌CLE @ IND: Under 40.5

❌NYG v WSH: Over 37.5

✅ATL @ TB: Under 37.5

❌DET @ BAL: Under 43.5

✅CHI v LV: OVER 38.5

✅LAR v PIT: Under 43.5

✅ARI @ SEA: Under 44.5

❌DEN v GB: Over 44.5

🔄LAC @ KC: Over 48

❌PHI v MIA: Over 52.5

✅SF @ MIN: Under 44

Time to iterate and get sharper for next week. In a few days, I’ll have the Sir Rebral Seven for Week 8 headed your way. But I’m never far. I’m just a few clicks away on Twitter, TikTok, Youtube, and Instagram.

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Here’s to Week 8,

-- Joey