I hope you’re stuffed with turkey and cornbread and pumpkin pie and leftovers galore. If Thanksgiving Day football wasn’t enough for you, I hope you had your fill by the end of the weekend. My eyes were glued to every play, every score, and every number. In the end, that hard work led to a strong 57% on spreads. 

And because I’m so thankful to have football in my life, I’m paying it forward by including two additional analyses from the Thanksgiving slate to today’s rewind newsletter. 

Let’s dive into the breakdown. 

Thanksgiving Slate

❌✅THANKSGIVING SELECT: DET -7.5 v GB, Over 47

Final Score: Green Bay Packers 29 Detroit Lions 22

The historical trend of the Lions stinking up the joint on Thanksgiving continued yet again. I didn’t handicap the game to factor in the old Lions, because the new Lions have been so consistently good for a while. But sometimes, teams just don’t show up, and that’s what happened here. The Lions defense broke down and their offense turned it over several times yet again, leading to an easy Packers victory. The Lions crushed the Packers earlier in the year, so I was expecting more of the same. But, on the bright side, we won on the Over. 

✅❌THANKSGIVING SELECT: SF -6.5 at SEA, Under 43

Final Score: San Francisco 49ers 31 Seattle Seahawks 13

Pure domination by the 49ers. They held the Seahawks offense to just 6 points and less than 200 yards of offense! The Seahawks got a pick 6 to get their score to 13 points, but overall was another dud by a team whose offense has just been utterly flat for the better part of the last month. This game should have gone under, but those pesky pick 6’s tend to push totals over!

The Sir Rebral Seven

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: DAL -10.5 v WSH 

Final Score: Dallas Cowboys 45 Washington Commanders 10

The Cowboys did not disappoint. I predicted that they “might” get to 50 points, but alas, they ended up with 45. This one went exactly as planned. Nearly every pass completion Dallas made was a ginormous chunk of yards. The Commanders defense now falls to dead last in the league on points given up. 

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: CAR TEN UNDER 37 

Final Score: Tennessee Titans 17 Carolina Panthers 10

This game went almost exactly as predicted (including the ugly and incompetent plays) to the tune of a Titans 17-10 victory. The Titans had one drive set up off of a turnover inside the Carolina 20, which ended in a touchdown. Otherwise, neither team eclipsed 300 yards of offense. 

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: MIA NYJ UNDER 41

Final Score: Miami Dolphins 34 NY Jets 13

Incredible variance! It took an anomaly like two defensive touchdowns in order for this number to go over, considering the Jets gained less than 200 yards on the day and didn’t manufacture any offensive points until garbage time. 

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: KC LV UNDER 43 

Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs 31 Las Vegas Raiders 17

This one was a head scratcher. The Raiders actually matched the Chiefs yardage for the game, both getting roughly 360 yards gained. This amounted to a 31-17 final score, busting the over/under. After a dominating performance on defense last week, I didn’t foresee the Chiefs giving up so much yardage to the Raiders. But credit to the Raiders who showed up prepared. Moreover, the Chiefs offense converted all of their drives when they were gaining those 360 ish yards. I expected them to score 4 times (24 pts projected, 3 TD / 1 FG) instead of 5. Both offenses surpassed expectations. 

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: ARI +1.5 v LAR

Final Score: LA Rams 37 Arizona Cardinals 14

The Rams offense came back to life after a very long absence. This was a failure on my part, because the return of Kyren Williams seemed to spark everything for their run game and offense, who ended up with over 200 rushing yards as a team on the day. The last game that Kyren Williams played, funny enough, was against Arizona 6 weeks ago. A running back playing or not playing shouldn’t matter as much as it does for the Rams, but clearly it did. Absolute slaughter!

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: TB +2.5 @ IND

Final Score: Indianapolis Colts 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

The key element to this handicap was that the Buccaneers would have success stopping the Colts rush attack. Unfortunately, that did not happen, and the Colts ran the ball with massive success. Indy won this one 27-20, and was in control the whole way. Part of the reason the Bucs faltered was because they lost several defensive players to injury early in the game, which is just how things go sometimes. 

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: NYG +4.5 v NE

Final Score: NY Giants 10 NE Patriots 7

An ugly game start to finish. Although the Patriots did outgain the Giants in the end by a chunk, the fact still remained that this was a roughly equal matchup between two bad teams, and the Giants’ feisty defense made the plays and forced the turnovers they needed to get the job done. 

🙅‍♂️SIR REBRAL STAY AWAY🙅‍♂️: CHI +3 at MIN 

Don’t touch this spread! 

This game was as wacky as any this week, with the Bears finding a way to win the game outright despite not scoring a single touchdown. The Vikings turned it over 4 times, yet were right in the game all the way through. This could have gone either way at any moment, as neither team had a big edge on the other on either offense or defense. It just happened to go the Bears’ way, although they do deserve credit as their defense has gotten a lot better throughout the course of the year. 

The Spread Selects

❌DET -7.5 v GB

✅DAL -10.5 v WSH

✅SF -6.5 at SEA 

✅MIA -9.5 at NYJ

✅ATL +2 v NO

❌HOU +1.5 v JAX

❌CIN +2.5 v PIT

❌TB +2.5 at IND

✅NYG +4.5 v NE

❌CAR +3.5 at TEN

❌ARI +2.5 v LAR

🔄PHI -3 v BUF

✅DEN -1.5 v CLE

✅KC -9.5 at LV

✅BAL -3.5 at LAC

The Over/Unders

✅DET v GB OVER 47

✅DAL v WSH OVER 48

❌SF at SEA UNDER 43

❌MIA at NYJ UNDER 41

❌ATL v NO OVER 42.5

❌HOU v JAX OVER 48

❌TB at IND UNDER 44.5

✅NYG v NE UNDER 35.5

✅CAR at TEN UNDER 36.5

❌ARI v LAR UNDER 45

❌PHI v BUF UNDER 48.5

❌DEN v CLE UNDER 37

❌KC at LV UNDER 42.5

❌BAL at LAC OVER 48

❌CHI at MIN OVER 43

To stay up to date with breaking news, line movements, and analysis, smash that follow button on Twitter, TikTok, Youtube, and Instagram.

————

Become a Sir Rebral Super Subject and get the Sir Rebral Seven delivered every week for the season. That’s 7 Selects and 1 Stay Away — plus early access to the recap of all my results. We have weekly, monthly, and season options available for all budgets!

For those that really want to make huge profits, the Whole Enchilada package comes with ALL my picks (at least 10 Spread Selects and 10 Over/Under Selects per week), all my Stay Aways, and all the research and stats that go into three Selects I’m most interested in that week, for just $750 for the rest of the season.

If you’re not ready yet to make the leap, be sure to subscribe to get next week’s Free Selects:

Stay tuned for more selects in Week 13. And happy Tuesday,

-- Joey