Before we get into the breakdown for last week’s Sir Rebral Seven, it’s imperative that we prep for an epic Turkey Day and three glorious NFL games. Sir Rebral royally presents to you a very special Thanksgiving Edition of selects. 

👑THANKSGIVING SELECT🧠: DET -7.5 v GB, Over 47

Score projection: Lions 31 Packers 20

When the Lions met the Packers earlier in the year, it was an absolute domination. Oftentimes, it’s the default to play back the bets that won earlier in the year with a division matchup repeat, when it was as convincing as the previous game was. The Lions should score on Green Bay easily, as there is no evidence that anything has changed since then. The Lions will dominate the line play on both sides.

👑THANKSGIVING SELECT🧠: DAL -11 v WSH, Over 49

Score projection: Cowboys 38 Commanders 16

The Commanders have mailed it in for the season. They dismantled their defense at the trade deadline, and it’s showing. Everyone and anyone is getting big chunks of yards against them, and I’m sure the Cowboys won’t be an exception. Expect a high scoring thrashing by Dallas, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they put 50 points on the board.

👑THANKSGIVING SELECT🧠: SF -6.5 at SEA, Under 43

Score projection: 49ers 26 Seahawks 15

The 49ers are back into full gear, and the timing isn’t good for a Seattle team who has lost their offensive identity. Even when they move the ball down the field, they haven’t been converting drives into touchdowns. It should be a long day for a Seahawks team facing a feisty 49ers front, who should dominate the line play. The Seahawks secondary is pretty good, so I expect them to not get passed all over the place the whole game. That will play into the under, but I don’t think it’s enough to give the Seahawks a realistic chance at covering.

🏈🦃🏈🦃🏈

Now that you’re set for Thanksgiving football, allow me to explain a key reason why Week 11 (along with some others) didn’t go as expected. This year in the NFL has yielded super volatile distributions. The “Favorites” for spreads are winning just as much as the “Underdogs.” And the Unders are winning far more than the Overs. That’s not normal, thus making it far harder to accurately predict results. 

Take a look at what I mean here. The numbers speak for themselves. 

But despite the abnormal distributions, I still went 3-4 on the Sir Rebral Seven this week and over 50% on spreads. Now, let’s break down this week’s selects. 

The Sir Rebral Seven

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: PHI +3 @ KC

Score projection: Eagles 26 Chiefs 17

I went big on the Eagles and for good reason. They WON. But you already knew they would. Because, despite last year’s Super Bowl failure, I told you in my last newsletter: “all signs point towards Philly winning this game.” 

But to gloat for a second, let’s remind ourselves how uncharacteristic this victory is. The Eagles hadn’t won at Arrowhead Stadium since 2005. They hadn’t beaten the Chiefs at all since 2009. Which means the Eagles had never beaten Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. In what felt like a role-reversal replay of last year’s Super Bowl, the Eagles came back from being down 10 at halftime (just like the Chiefs had been in February). My sharp analyses came through by predicting the Eagles would win against the Chiefs outright –– something these guys haven’t done in almost 20 years. 

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: LAR +1 v SEA

The Seahawks offense just has not been good this year, and more of the same continued this week against the Rams. I was expecting a bit more out of the Rams offense, but they are a shell of the team that put up 30 points week 1. The Rams only led at the very end, when they hit a FG as time expired to secure the 1 point victory and a season sweep of the Seahawks. 17-16 final!

 ❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: LV MIA Over 44.5 

After a 17 point first quarter, this one looked great. But all scoring came to a screeching halt after several turnovers, including one on the goal line by the Dolphins. The Raiders backup QB even threw for almost 300 yards, but still could only manufacture 13 points. Disappointing outcome in a game that had over 700 yards off offense.

✅SIR REBRAL SELECT: DAL -10.5 @ CAR 

Score projection: Cowboys 29 Panthers 10

The Cowboys defense dominated this game, sacking Bryce Young 8 times as well as getting a pick 6. I never doubted this select. The Panthers gained less than 200 yards of offense in another dead performance by a dead team (with a 1-9 record).

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: CHI DET Under 48

The under was in good shape for much of the game, but a wacky series of turnovers and long plays caused it to bust at the end. Jared Goff throwing 3 picks was certainly beyond predictability, and those turnovers set the Bears up with a short field multiple times.

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: NYG WSH Under 37 

Another wacky game in the books, as the Commanders gave the ball away 6 times! This led to the Giants scoring 31 points, shattering their previous highest scoring game of season by a ton.

❌SIR REBRAL SELECT: LAC GB Over 44

By far the most frustrating game of the week. These teams amassed 400 yards a piece, but missed the over by 1 point. 5 FGs were made, and if any of those were a TD, it hits over. The Chargers also missed a FG and fumbled on the goal line. Sometimes, things don’t go your way, even if you make the right bet.

🙅‍♂️SIR REBRAL STAY AWAY🙅‍♂️: JAX -7 v TEN

Don’t touch this spread! 

Jacksonville had a bounce back game against the awful Titans. I had some doubts about this because of the strange dynamics involved with division games, but Tennessee has more than proven that they are the worst team in the league when on the road.

The Spread Selects

❌CIN +3.5 @ BAL

✅CLE -1 v PIT

❌MIA -12.5 v LV

❌DET -8 v CHI

✅GB +3 v LAC

✅DAL -10.5 @ CAR

✅NYG +9.5 @ WSH

❌HOU -5.5 v ARI

❌NYJ +8.5 @ BUF

✅LAR +1 v SEA

✅SF -11.5 v TB

❌DEN -2.5 v MIN

✅PHI +3 @ KC

The Over/Unders

✅CIN @ BAL OVER 46

❌CLE v PIT OVER 33

❌MIA v LV OVER 44.5

❌DET v CHI UNDER 48

❌JAX v TEN UNDER 40

❌GB v LAC OVER 44

❌DAL @ CAR UNDER 42.5

❌NYG @ WSH UNDER 37.5

✅HOU v ARI UNDER 48

✅NYJ @ BUF UNDER 39.5

✅LAR v SEA UNDER 46.5

❌SF v TB OVER 41.5

✅DEN -2.5 v MIN UNDER 41.5

✅PHI @ KC UNDER 46

Stay connected with me throughout this NFL-packed holiday weekend on Twitter, TikTok, Youtube, and Instagram.

Happy Thanksgiving, 

-- Joey

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