Happy Super Wild Card Weekend. While nothing is for sure about this weekend’s football outcomes (yet), one thing is certain. January has hit. And it is cold. Windy. At the risk of sounding like a weatherman, it brings me no pleasure to report frigid temperatures in Kansas City and high winds in Buffalo. 

But why am I talking about the weather? Because my calculus for these selects, as with every week, includes quantitative and qualitative data. Just as much as I’m digesting and analyzing player stats, I am understanding weather reports and any factor that may impact the play. 

Buckle up for the breakdown of all six games this upcoming weekend.

Sir Rebral Wild Card Selects & Stayaway

🙅‍♂️SIR REBRAL STAY AWAY🙅‍♂️: CLE -3 @ HOU, Under 44.5

Don’t touch this game! 

Score Projection: CLE 23 HOU 20

🏈O/D/ST: 

• 🕒12/24/23: Browns 36 Texans 22

  • When these teams last met on Christmas Eve, Flacco torched the Texans for 368 yards and 3 TDs, with the Houston offense not scoring until the 6-minute mark of the 4th quarter. 

  • But that was without the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud.

🤕Injuries: Dustin Hopkins out, several Browns DBs questionable

⛈️Weather: Dome

This game is a massive question mark. Based on their last matchup, the Browns would be the easy pick. They really made the Texans defense look bad. But CJ Stroud wasn’t on the field. So the question remains: is CJ Stroud alone enough to whip the Texans into shape? And frankly, only time will tell. This game will ultimately come down to defense –– the Browns have more to show than the Texans on this front. With the way Flacco and the Browns offense has been cooking over the past month and more, they are every bit as explosive as a Texans offense with Stroud at the helm. The spread of 3 matches up exactly with my score projection, making it too close to call. I’d definitely stay away. 

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: KC -4 v MIA, Under 44

Score Projection: KC 24 MIA 17

🏈O/D/ST: 

• Miami has given up 434 yards/game the last 3 games

🤕Injuries: Achane, Hill, Mostert, Waddle questionable but all expected to play

⛈️Weather: Wind chill approaching -30 degrees, would be coldest game in history for either team

The Chiefs had the Dolphins’ number when they played earlier in the year, holding them to just 14 points of offense in the international game. Since then, the Dolphins have had an injury parade and are in some big trouble heading on the road this week. Not only that, but the Dolphins are much less equipped than Kansas City (where they have, you know, seasons) for a cold snap. Let the record show that the Dolphins lost their last 10 cold weather games. Ouch. 

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: BUF -10 v PIT, Under 36

Score Projection: BUF 24 PIT 9

🏈O/D/ST: 

• Bills are 1st in the league in 3rd down efficiency percentage

🤕Injuries: TJ Watt out, Rasul Douglas questionable

⛈️Weather: 1-2 feet of snow, 29 mph winds, gusts of up to 44 mph

The Steelers fought admirably to make it to the playoffs, but now they face real competition. Last year, the Bills beat them by 35 points, and I’m expecting more of the same. The Steeler run game held up against bad teams and backups this season, but Buffalo has a real shot at stopping them. Especially with defensive leader TJ Watt out, the Steelers’ defense is ill-equipped to stop Josh Allen and their strong offense. 

I’m looking forward to seeing this weekend’s outcomes and sharpening my Super Bowl prediction. But as of right now, I feel comfortable saying that I expect to see the 49ers and the Bills make it all the way to February 11th. 

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: GB +7.5 @ DAL, Over 50.5

Score Projection: DAL 31 GB 29

🏈O/D/ST: 

• Pass Defense: GB solid recently 👍 vs DAL on the decline 📉

• Pass Offense: GB and DAL neck in neck 🤜🤛

  • The Cowboys went for 291 passing yards/game on the season, and Jordan Love threw for 269 yards/game in the last 3.

⛈️Weather: Dome

It has been a tale of two halves for the Packers this season. After much struggle at the top half of the season, they’re finally churning and turning into the offense I envisioned before the season. Their offensive line and run game finally execute, opening up the floodgates for the pass game. They’ve been explosive and won a lot as a result. They’re probably the hottest team heading into the playoffs, so I expect a shootout. While the Packers offense has been promising, they still have issues on defense, and are ill equipped to stop a Cowboys team that went 8-0 at home this year and was a juggernaut on offense. The Packers will give them a run for their money, but Dallas will pull it out. 

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: LAR +3 @ DET, Over 51

Score Projection: LAR 31 DET 27

🏈O/D/ST: 

• DVOA: Detroit > LA

  • Take this season-wide stat with a grain of salt, given the Rams’ slow start and Matthew Stafford’s absences in the middle of the season. 

• ST DVOA: LA = dead last in the league

  • LA’s special teams woes continue to haunt them, with the return of Brett Maher last week bringing a missed PAT already.

🤕Injuries: Sam LaPorta out

⛈️Weather: Dome

Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit to face the team that he played for most of his career. All things are mostly equal personnel wise between the Rams and the Lions –– strong run games, strong offensive lines, and poor defense. But the Rams have a leg up in terms of ability to put pressure on Goff. The Lions, on the other hand, find their (minimal) defensive line strength through stopping the run game. On top of that, the Rams have the edge at Quarterback and Coach as well. Although the Lions are certainly capable of winning this game, the Rams will find a way to get it done. Rams win a shootout. 

👑SIR REBRAL SELECT🧠: TB +3 v PHI, Under 44 

Score Projection: TB 20 PHI 17

🏈O/D/ST: 

• Rush Defense: Tampa’s rush defense has been stifling ❌, while Philly’s is falling apart ❌❌. 

• Pass Defense: Buccaneers 📈 vs Eagles 👎

  • The Buccaneers’ pass defense has been trending up, allowing only 179 passing yards/game in the last three contests. Meanwhile, the Eagles boast the 2nd-worst pass defense this season, and recently giving up 240 passing yards/game against the Cardinals and in two meetings with the Giants.

🤕Injuries: Hurts and Brown injured but expected to play

⛈️Weather: High 60s and clear

Philadelphia has been sputtering since the halfway point of the season, and now, it’s their time to die. Tampa’s offense definitely looked concerning the past few weeks, but they now get to face one of the worst defenses in the league, and probably the worst defense in the playoffs, all while playing at home. These are easily the two worst teams in the postseason, but I’ll take the Buccaneers to win this game. The Eagles have no business being favored given their complete implosion on both sides of the ball. 

To stay up to date with breaking news, line movements, and analysis, smash that follow button on Twitter, TikTok, Youtube, and Instagram.

————

Become a Sir Rebral Super Subject and get the Sir Rebral Seven delivered every week for the season. That’s 7 Selects and 1 Stay Away — plus early access to the recap of all my results. We have weekly, monthly, and season options available for all budgets!

For those that really want to make huge profits, the Whole Enchilada package comes with ALL my picks (at least 10 Spread Selects and 10 Over/Under Selects per week), all my Stay Aways, and all the research and stats that go into three Selects I’m most interested in that week, for just $750 for the rest of the season.

If you’re not ready yet to make the leap, be sure to subscribe to get next week’s Free Selects:

More soon,

-- Joey